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Experts react to April’s PPI report
  + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExperts react to April’s PPI reportPeter Earle, senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research; Kitty Richards, senior fellow at Groundwork Collaborative; and CNBC's Rick Santelli join 'Squawk Box' to react to April's PPI data.
Persons: Peter Earle, Kitty Richards, Rick Santelli Organizations: PPI, American Institute for Economic Research
Patrick Pleul | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesGermany's housebuilding sector has gone from bad to worse in recent months. "The housebuilding sector is, I would say, a little bit in a confidence crisis," Dominik von Achten, chairman of German building materials company Heidelberg Materials, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday. In January both the current sentiment and expectations for the German residential construction sector fell to all-time lows, according to data from the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The business climate reading fell to a negative 59 points, while expectations dropped to negative 68.9 points in the month. Habeck pointed to higher interest rates as a key challenge for the economy, explaining that those had led to reduced investments, especially in the construction sector.
Persons: Patrick Pleul, Dominik von Achten, CNBC's, Klaus Wohlrabe, Robert Habeck, Wohlrabe, It's, Achten Organizations: Getty, Heidelberg Materials, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI, Climate Locations: Germany, Ifo, Heidelberg
Can Germany’s sputtering economy be revived in 2024?
  + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
Europe’s biggest economy shrank last year for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. And the outlook isn’t much brighter: the International Monetary Fund predicts that Germany will be the slowest-growing major economy in 2024, eking out an increase of just 0.5%. “Germany needs a fundamental economic transformation,” Marcel Fratzcher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, told CNN. Carsten Koall/Getty ImagesHomegrown troublesAlongside an external environment that has become more hostile to Germany’s outward-facing economy, the country’s internal political climate has worsened. Businesses such as these, which can find new markets and applications for their know-how, may hold the key to reviving Germany’s moribund economy.
Persons: What’s, ” Marcel Fratzcher, , Carsten Brzeski, Jens Schlueter, Constanze Stelzenmuller, Christian Lindner, Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, Carsten Koall, Michael Probst, Karl Haeusgen, ” Sebastian Shukla, Chris Stern Organizations: London CNN — Trains, Lufthansa, International Monetary Fund, European Union, European Commission, German Institute for Economic Research, CNN, ING, Brookings Institution, Volkswagen, Biden, Free Democratic Party, Social Democratic Party and, Green Party, Deutsche, LinkedIn, Investors, SAP, chipmaker Infineon, Intel, MAN Energy Solutions, Germany’s Machinery, Equipment Manufacturers Association Locations: Europe’s, Germany, Ukraine, Berlin, Europe, China, Zwickau, United States, Russia, , Japan, masse, Frankfurt, , Hamburg, Jungheinrich, Augsburg, Munich, Esbjerg, Denmark
London CNN —Germany is bracing for widespread disruption to rail services after train drivers embarked on a record six-day strike Wednesday, which will further strain crucial supply chains and deal a new blow to the sputtering economy. The state-owned rail operator said the action would cause “massive disruptions” to long-distance, regional and city commuter services until Monday. That was a major drag on the economy overall, with gross domestic product falling 0.3% in 2023, likely the weakest performance among Europe’s big countries. The strike represents “a major logistical challenge” for the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, the German Chemicals Industry Association told CNN. Germany’s supply chains are already struggling because of attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Persons: Joerg Kraemer, , , Anja, GDL, Claus Weselsky, Tesla, Michael Groemling, Chris Stern Organizations: London CNN —, Germany’s, Deutsche Bahn, Freight, Deutsche Bahn’s, German Chemicals Industry Association, CNN, German Association of, Automotive Industry, Tuesday Deutsche Bahn, Cologne Institute, Economic Research Locations: London CNN — Germany, Germany, Germany’s, , Red, Berlin
German budget crisis will haunt economy for years
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The German government is working hard to demonstrate the foolishness of the country’s iron-clad ban on large budget deficits. The budget crisis will cripple the economy for years to come, for three reasons. The debt brake, which limits structural budget deficits to 0.35% of GDP, has only been suspended for this year’s budget. Public net investment has been negative for 20 years, Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, has pointed out. The country is not on the cusp of a debt crisis.
Persons: Carsten Brzeski, That’s, Marcel Fratzscher, Christian Lindner, Lindner, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Constitutional, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, ING, German Economic Institute, Public, German Institute for Economic Research, German, Germany’s, Thomson Locations: Europe, Berlin
Why It Matters: A Restraint on Germany’s Green Ambitions. The Climate Transformation Fund has €212 billion dedicated to projects from 2024 to 2027. The court ruled that it must now be reduced by €60 billion, the money added from unused pandemic funds. Heart of the Issue: Germany’s ‘Debt Brake’Germany is the only leading industrial economy to have a so-called debt brake written into its constitution. “The circumvention of the debt brake is becoming increasingly absurd,” said Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, a Berlin-based think tank.
Persons: , Marcel Fratzscher, Organizations: , German Institute for Economic Research, Social Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats Locations: Germany, Berlin, Ukraine
Fast forward two years, and German housebuilding looks like it's collapsing, putting pressure on both his hard-to-reach goal, but also the overall economy of the country. Over 22% of companies surveyed reported the cancellation of residential construction projects in Germany in October, a new record high. Expectations for the residential construction industry fell to what the Ifo described as an "exceptional low." "Things continue to go from bad to worse in Germany's construction sector. But it's also the jobs market that could be impacted by troubles in the homebuilding sector, Brzeski noted.
Persons: Soeren, Germany's Olaf Scholz, , Cyrus de la Rubia, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Wohlrabe, it's Organizations: Getty, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, German Federal, Office, ING, CNBC, European Central Bank, ECB, European Commission Locations: downtown Wittenberg, Germany, Hamburg
What Is a Soft Landing?
  + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Aly J. Yale | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +4 min
But whether the central bank can meet its dual-objectives of slowing price growth and avoiding a recession—dubbed a “soft landing” by economists—remains to be seen. Threading that needle has proven to be quite elusive.”What is a soft landing? “The alternative to a soft landing is a hard landing,” Cirksena says. “How ‘soft’ that ‘soft landing’ is among citizens could vary widely,” he says. Will the Fed achieve a soft landing this time?
Persons: Aly J, , , David Johnston, Bank of Japan —, Aaron Cirksena, you’ll, ” Cirksena, Peter C, Earle, Jerome Powell, Organizations: Yale, Federal Reserve, Wealth Management, European Central Bank, Bank of, MDRN, American Institute for Economic Research, Fed, Bank of America, Wall Street, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: Flemington, N.J, U.S, Bank of Japan, Annapolis, Md
Video calls are broadly considered proxies for face-to-face meetings and therefore are currently subject to little or no formal record-keeping obligations. At least two major global banks are now recording Zoom calls, said sources with knowledge of the matter, who declined to be named because the information is not public. One bank is recording Zoom calls undertaken by certain staff, including traders, while the other is recording all Zoom calls so content can be reviewed later if needed. FINRA declined to comment on how many firms were subject to the rule or whether the rule also extended to video calls. Video calls pose "unique risks" and technology needed to efficiently screen video calls is not widely used, said Matt Smith, CEO of communications surveillance firm SteelEye.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Brad Levy, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Matthew Nunan, Gibson, Dunn, Morgan Stanley, Sarah Pritchard, Claire Garrett, Michael Watling, Seward, FINRA, Matt Smith, Ryan, Yonk, Symphony's Levy, Chris Prentice, Michelle Price, Huw Jones, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Finance, Reuters, U.S, EMEA, Microsoft, Britain's, Authority, HSBC, Bloomberg, U.S . Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Employees, American Institute for Economic Research, Washington D.C, Thomson Locations: Marsh, U.S, New York, Washington, London
Interest rates on traditionally "safer" investments like Treasury bonds are high. Economist Thomas Hogan of the American Institute for Economic Research recently pointed out this upside to the interest rates and how it is helping Americans. "Now, interest rates on US Treasury bonds are at the highest in more than a decade, giving savers a safe, stable place to store their money." If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate. However, to the extent that strength in the economy is behind the increase in long-term interest rates, the FOMC may need to do more."
Persons: , Thomas Hogan, Hogan, Jerome Powell, Kevin Dietsch, Tim Hayes, Lorie Logan, Logan Organizations: Service, Treasury, American Institute for Economic Research, Federal, NDR, U.S, Supreme, Dallas Locations: Israel
Business sentiment has recently deteriorated again and overall, the indicators suggest that production fell noticeably in the third quarter of 2023, the economic institutes said. GDP is expected to shrink by 0.4% in the third quarter, following stagnation in the second quarter. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. In the following years, a decreasing potential growth rate due to the shrinking labour force will become more and more apparent, the economic institutes said. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halley Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Oliver Holtemoeller, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine Our Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Ifo Institute, Halley Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany
Growth of 0.3% had been expected in the institutes' spring forecasts. The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts are to be presented in Berlin on Thursday. The economics ministry usually updates its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.
Persons: Annegret, Christian Kraemer, Rene Wagner, Maria Martinez, Rachel Armstrong, Kirsti Knolle, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Ifo Institute, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany
The Viking Star cruise ship is moored at Greenwich with the City of London financial district in the distance, in London, Britain, August 29, 2023. It is absolutely the time for action over words," Alasdair Haynes, CEO of Aquis Exchange, a share trading platform, and chair of financial industry body TheCityUK's Business Council, told Reuters. The main problem for trade bodies is the vast scope of Britain's financial services industry, with each sub-sector and TheCityUK presenting their own reform priorities and ideas, often overlapping. In the meantime, top financial sector executives running global teams of bankers and traders are increasingly bewildered by Britain's inability to make faster progress on a matter of such economic significance. ELECTION LOOMINGSome senior financial industry sources say politics may hamper the City's reform agenda even further, with a general election expected next year.
Persons: Kevin Coombs, Alasdair Haynes, Jeremy Hunt, Nicholas Lyons, TheCityUK, ” Samuel Gregg, Richard Gardner, Huw Jones, Sinead Cruise, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Viking, City, REUTERS, London’s, Mayor, European Union, Aquis, Business, Reuters, Finance, stoke, of, Arm Holdings, Labour, Conservative, American Institute for Economic Research, Investment Funds Association, EU, Thomson Locations: Greenwich, London, Britain, Europe, Asia, United States, Edinburgh, of London, New York, Amsterdam, City, France
Arm Holdings, the British semiconductor and software maker, is set to go public on Thursday in the biggest initial public offering of 2023. This isn't the first time Arm shares have been available to the public. In its F-1 filing to go public, Arm said its CPUs "run the vast majority of the world's software." That would make Arm stock impressively expensive compared to peers in the tech sector. That said, while Arm shares are looking expensive today, if the company lives up to its high expectations, then the price begins to look more reasonable.
Persons: SoftBank, Arm, it's, Seth Farbman, ARM's, Farbman, Matt Bryson, he's, Bryson, Peter C, Earle, We've, It's Organizations: Arm Holdings, Bank of America, SoftBank, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, ARM, Apple, Google, AMD, Samsung, VStock, Intel, Wedbush Securities, American Institute for Economic Research, IPOs, China Arm's Locations: China
London CNN —It’s been nearly two decades since Germany shrugged off its “sick man of Europe” label with a series of labor market reforms that ushered in years of economic outperformance. Sticky inflation and three straight quarters of falling or stagnating output have put Europe’s biggest economy in the doldrums. “Sticky” inflation is eroding Germans’ purchasing power, fueling “pessimism among households,” according to Thomas Obst, senior economist at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. “[German] industrial order books have emptied over the last 12 months,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN. “Germany is in a very singular position.”Bright spotsHolger Schmieding, the economist who first called Germany the “sick man of Europe” in 1998, thinks the “current wave of pessimism” over its economy is overdone.
Persons: London CNN — It’s, Stefan Kooths, Europe ”, Kooths, Thomas Obst, Obst, , Klaus Wohlrabe, Frank Soellner, ” Carsten Brzeski, Sam Reeves, Brzeski, David Hecker, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, Kiehl Institute, Cologne Institute, Economic Research, CNN, European Central Bank, ifo, Volkswagen, Siemens, Global, ING, Getty, China Locations: Germany, Europe, Berlin, ifo, Bad, China, Duisburg, AFP, Ukraine, Australia, France
Moscow's actions have deprived many foreign investors of the ability to trade in Russian securities, including depositary receipts. Investors are worried about future copycat actions by other governments who might look to reduce foreign influence over their leading companies. Depositary receipts, or DRs, are certificates issued by a bank representing shares in a foreign company traded on a local stock exchange. But events in Russia have forced many investors to write down the value of depositary receipts of Russian companies to zero, given their inability to trade them. CONSEQUENCESLoss of confidence in DRs could drain needed foreign capital from firms in emerging economies, for instance.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Peter C, Earle, Christopher Day, Michael Ashley Schulman, Goldman Sachs, III, Detsky Mir, Goldman, Otkrytie, Schulman, Grzegorz Drozdz, Malcolm Dorson, Sinead Cruise, Carolina Mandl, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Global, American Institute for Economic Research, Reuters, Citigroup, Companies, Citi ., Reuters Graphics, DR, Investors, Doliver Advisors, Running, Capital Advisors, Conotoxia, Russian, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Brazil, China, Russia, GDR, GDRs, United States, Britain, London, Carolina, New York
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoAug 4 (Reuters) - Shares of Tupperware Brands (TUP.N) surged 44% on Friday, after the kitchen storage container maker finalized a debt restructuring deal as it attempts a turnaround of its business, reinvigorating retail investors' interest in the company. It was the seventh most traded stock by retail investors at 10:00 a.m. The share gains were reminiscent of eye watering "meme stocks" rallies, where retail investors coordinate on social media and typically focus their speculative bets on companies that were financially struggling or had high short interest. Tupperware was the second most actively traded single stock by retail traders over the past week, according to a J.P.Morgan note.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tupperware, Bartosz, stocktwits.com, Peter Earle, Medha Singh, Savyata Mishra, Krishna Chandra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Tupperware Brands, American Institute for Economic Research, American, Corp, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Florida, Bengaluru
"The culture wars are coming to UK businesses, including the financial sector," said Andre Spicer, dean of City University's Bayes Business School. It also cited "risk factors including... controversial public statements which were felt to conflict with the bank's purpose". However, data from watchdog the Financial Ombudsman Service showed complaints about account closures represented a tiny fraction of a bank's overall customer base. Experts say other banks will now be scrambling to ensure their own policies and committees are behaving appropriately, to avoid further scandals. The CEO of Britain's biggest domestic bank Lloyds said on Wednesday the bank's own policies did not include looking at customers' political or personal beliefs.
Persons: Nigel Farage, Coutts, Andre Spicer, Howard Davies, Alison Rose, Rose, Peter Flavel, Charles Dickens, Queen Elizabeth II, Spicer, Harriet Baldwin, Bill Winters, Samuel Gregg, Banks, Gregg, University's Spicer, Rupert Younger, ", Sinead Cruise, Iain Withers, Lawrence White, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Brexit Party, NatWest, Bayes Business School, Coutts, Treasury, Bank of England, BBC, Standard Chartered, Farage, American Institute for Economic Research, Facebook, Financial, Service, Barclays, Lloyds, Centre, Oxford University's Said Business School, Thomson Locations: America
In previous refugee crises, for example in Syria, refugees' desire to return home has faded with time, UNHCR studies show. Conscription-aged men are restricted from leaving Ukraine, so working-aged women, and children, make up the majority of refugees. Ukraine's population problem goes beyond millions of refugees. A census in 2001 - the country's only so far - recorded a population of 48.5 million. Demographer Libanova estimated the population at between 28 million and 34 million at the start of 2023 in parts of the country controlled by Kyiv.
Persons: Korzh, Volodymyr Kostiuk, Kostiuk, It's, Dmytro Tsygankov, Ella Libanova, Libanova, Ksenia Karpenko, Karpenko, Corina Rodriguez, Catarina Demony, Mike Collett, White, Frank Jack Daniel Our Organizations: United Nations, UNHCR, Kyiv, for Economic Research, Political, for Economic, MEN, National Academy of Science, European Commission's, Research, The, Economic Strategy, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KYIV, Europe, Kyiv, Portugal, Ukraine, Lagoa, Syria, Ukrainian, Moscow, Russia, Crimea, Belarus, Russian, Tarragona, Spain, Madrid, Barcelona, Lisbon
Why It Matters: Germany has long neglected military spending. Despite intense pressure from the United States, Germany last spent 2 percent of its G.D.P. on defense in 1991, a year after the reunification of the former East and West German nations, according to statistics from the World Bank. The United States is using incentives, including tax breaks, to lure businesses in the green energy and technology sectors. “Germany is increasingly falling behind when it comes to investment and location decisions,” said Tanja Gönner, general director of the German Federation of Industries.
Persons: Marcel Fratzscher, Lindner, , Tanja Gönner Organizations: World Bank, German Institute for Economic Research, German Federation of Industries Locations: Germany, United States, West, Russia, Ukraine
Although they remain relatively modest in value, German exports to Georgia rose by 92%, while those to Kazakhstan rose 136%, to Armenia 172% and to Tajikistan 154%. An 11th package of EU sanctions, currently being negotiated, will also focus on people and countries circumventing existing trade restrictions. "The circumvention of sanctions against Russia is unacceptable," German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said in Brussels on Tuesday. That came after a six-fold rise in German exports to Kyrgyzstan last year following Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. "But because Turkey does not participate in EU sanctions, EU goods are further exported from there to Russia."
Bangladesh will pay Russia $318 million worth of yuan for a loan payment on a nuclear power plant. Russia, whose state-owned Rosatom is building the nuclear plant, had initially insisted on payment in rubles and refused yuan due to concern over potential conversion losses, according to Bloomberg. But a representative for Rosatom confirmed to the Washington Post that the loan payment will be made in yuan. The payment is partial reimbursement for a $12 billion loan the South Asian country previously received from Moscow, and will help fund a nuclear power plant near the capital city of Dhaka. Bangladesh's yuan payment is the latest example of de-dollarization.
The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts, to be presented in Berlin on Wednesday, expect a 0.1% expansion in gross domestic product in the first quarter. The five economic institutes which prepare the Joint Economic Forecasts predict GDP growth in Germany of 0.3% in 2023, up from a predicted contraction of 0.4% in the autumn, two sources familiar with the data told Reuters. The economics ministry will update its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts this spring. The economic institutes predict inflation of 6.0% in 2023, before slowing to 2.4% in 2024. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.
While the inflation rate is poised to subside this year, "it will not be a straight line," Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman told CNBC.com at the time. The Federal Reserve is tasked with getting inflation under control, while trying to avoid a deep economic recession. What the latest inflation measure showsThe personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCEPI, is the central bank's preferred measure as it seeks to bring inflation down to a 2% target. Based on Friday's data, it's "almost a certainty" the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points in March, and maybe even higher, Luther said. A period of below 2% inflation would be needed to see prices subside back to where they were, Luther said.
Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty ImagesMeanwhile, fuel oil dipped 1.2% in January but was up 27.7% for the past 12 months. While high gas prices made headlines in 2022, prompting gas tax holidays in some states, those prices have subsided from last year's highs. Gas prices "did rise in January and that was mostly due to the weather," said Andrew Gross, spokesperson at AAA. Other transportation costs are in fluxNew vehicles are up 5.8% over the past 12 months ending Jan. 30, and up 0.2% for the month. However, used cars and trucks, a category that surged during record high inflation, are now down 11.6% for the past 12 months and down 1.9% for January.
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